Unpacking the State of Arable Crops in 2024: Outlook for EU

Arable Crops field

A recently published report by the European Commission provides insights into the agricultural markets in 2023/24 and gives interesting information into the state of arable crops in 2024. The data was derived from a forecast that takes into account the latest developments and incorporates average trends observed in the past. These average trends serve to eliminate strong year-on-year variations that might have occurred due to extreme market and weather events.

Unveiling the Harvest: Arable Crops Highlights for the 2023/24 Season

The Short-Term Outlook for EU shows that the current market outlook is influenced by challenging summer weather conditions, impacting various crops across the EU. Hot and dry conditions, along with floods, have affected arable and specialized crops, leading to mixed outcomes. While grassland benefited from surplus rainfall, it caused harvest delays, increased pest and disease development, and negatively affected product quality. Despite these challenges, positive market prospects are evident, with declining input costs like energy, fertilizers, and feed. Lower EU agricultural prices have contributed to a reduction in the EU farmer price index. Competitive EU commodity prices support the recovery of exports, likely to continue in 2024 due to a relatively low EUR to USD exchange rate. The EU market remains appealing for imports, while the macroeconomic situation has seen a slight downward revision, with subdued economic growth expected to extend into 2024, influenced by a tighter monetary policy to combat inflation.

In the upcoming agricultural season of 2023/24, the European Union faces a significant challenge in cereal production, with a projected output of 268.5 million tons. This figure marks a 4.3% decrease from the 5-year average, primarily attributed to adverse weather conditions during spring and summer. Notably, maize and barley production have been particularly affected, experiencing a decline of 13% and 7%, respectively, below the 5-year average.

Arable Crops in 2024

Despite the reduction in cereal production, the overall use of cereals in the EU remains stable when compared to the previous marketing year, albeit 1.4% below the 5-year average. The stability in cereal usage is influenced by the relatively steady state of animal production, with variations among species. A marginal increase of 0.3% is expected in the use of cereals for feed, while the demand for cereals in biofuel production is projected to grow by 12%, surpassing the figures from 2022/23.

Following a record-high level of cereal imports in the previous season (2022/23), the EU anticipates a decrease in imports for the 2023/24 season. However, these figures are still expected to surpass the 5-year average.

Turning to oilseed production, the EU is poised for a robust output of 33 million tons in 2023/24, indicating an 11% increase from the 5-year average. This positive trend is primarily driven by an exceptional rapeseed harvest, boasting a remarkable 13.3% increase over the 5-year average. Additionally, the production of protein crops is estimated to reach 4.6 million tons, surpassing the 5-year average by 7.7%.

Looking at sugar production, the forecast for the 2023/24 season stands at 15.6 million tons, aligning closely with the 5-year average. This projection takes into account anticipated improvements in sugar beet planting area, beet yields, and sugar content.

Moreover, the EU’s isoglucose production, which experienced a significant 24% decline in the 2022/23 season due to the consequences of the 2022 summer drought, high feedstock costs, and input expenses in key EU-producing countries, is expected to undergo a partial recovery in the 2023/24 season.

All mentioned signals a dynamic and complex landscape for the EU’s arable crops, shaped by various factors influencing production, usage, and trade patterns.

EU Project Developing Digital Solutions for Arable Crops

The challenges posed by adverse weather conditions in agriculture can be mitigated through innovative solutions, and the EU project Farmtopia stands at the forefront of this transformative way.

The project includes 18 Sustainable Innovation Pilots (SIPs). Nine have been pre-selected, and the other nine will be chosen through an Open Call. These pilots focus on crops and livestock with underdeveloped Agricultural Digital Solutions (ADSs), addressing gaps in regional crops of importance.

Taking into consideration the nature of the Farmtopia Pilots, it is evident that these initiatives are not just experiments but strategic steps toward building resilient and sustainable agricultural practices.

More precisely, Sustainable Innovation Pilot 5 (SIP 5) is focusing on arable farming. Using digital technologies like Sentinel EO, UAVs (unmanned aerial vehicles), IoT weather stations, and soil sensors, the Pilot aims to optimize fertilization, pesticide use, and harvest planning, as well as to leverage additional data sources for environmental impact reduction and long-term soil quality improvement. That is poised to lead to better sustainability and efficiency, as it will be leveraging freely available data sources. This Pilot is led by Farmtopia partners ITC.

As we move forward, it is very important to recognize the role that initiatives like Farmtopia play in agriculture. By leveraging technology and fostering sustainable practices, we can not only mitigate the impact of adverse weather conditions but also pave the way for a more resilient and productive agricultural sector.

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